Asset: S&P 500 (SP500)
Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: 4H
Price: 7,713.1 · VWAP 7,746.8 · 9 EMA 7,748.7
Chart read
Lower highs from the 7,811 peak, then three red 4H candles to 7,710. Price is now below VWAP and the 9 EMA, which have turned down together near R2.
Trade idea
- Order: Sell limit 7,775
- POI zone (order block + Fibonacci): 7,772 – 7,789
- Stop loss: 7,815
- TP1: 7,700
- TP2: 7,683
- Risk: 40 pts
- Risk/reward: 1 : 2.3
Why this POI
- Bearish OB: the last green 4H candle before the drop, 7,778.5 – 7,801
- Fib golden zone 7,772 – 7,789 overlaps the OB
- Stop above the 7,811 high; TPs at S1 7,700 and S2 7,683
Plan B
No retrace? Sell a failed retest of R1 at 7,730 toward 7,700
Rules for this idea
- Limit orders only: if price never reaches the POI, there is no trade.
- Wait for the 8:30 AM data and the 9:30 AM cash open before placing the order.
- Risk no more than 1% on the idea; take partial profit at TP1 and move the stop to breakeven.
Primary risk factor
Weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM ET) and the reaction to Tesla's and Meta's results.
Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Primary risk factors
What could change the outlook
- Weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM ET) and the reaction to Tesla's and Meta's results.